Biden's approval on Israel hits another low as conflict continues

WASHINGTON (TND) — President Joe Biden’s approval of his handling of the war in Gaza is continuing to slide as voters on both sides of the issue are frustrated with the administration’s response and how the war is playing out.

The White House is facing pressure from both sides of the aisle as the war is stretching into its seventh month with no clear path to an ending in the near-term outlook as Israel continues operations in Rafah with cease-fire talks at a standstill despite prodding from the administration and other international diplomats.

A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released this week found Biden has a 36% job approval rating on dealing with the conflict, down from 39% last month and 44% in October when Hamas launched its terrorist attack that started the war.

Biden and his administration have shifted their tone since the war’s first days from blanket support to Israeli military missions to a more nuanced view of limiting civilian casualties and seeking a way out of the war as the fighting has continued into its seventh month and the Palestinian death toll has mounted.

He has ramped up his calls for ceasefire and publicly pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to act more carefully when it comes to what happens next in the war. Biden paused a $1 billion shipment of U.S.-made weapons to Israel last week over concerns about a large civilian death toll in Rafah before ultimately deciding to move forward with it.

Despite the recent rebukes of some of Israel’s choices in the war, Biden and his administration have also stuck by its ally after the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor sought arrest warrants against Netanyahu and defense minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

“The ICC prosecutor’s application for arrest warrants against Israeli leaders is outrageous. And let me be clear: whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security,” Biden said in a statement Monday.

The president is trying to walk a fine line between supporting a crucial ally in a region known for instability while trying to minimize the humanitarian crisis that has enveloped Gaza as the fighting has expanded.

The shift in Biden’s policies is being seen by voters as driven by domestic politics rather than national security concerns, with 53% of people in the survey saying “perceived domestic politics”

Protests that swept across college campuses earlier this year have also fueled concerns that younger voters may not support Biden at the same levels they did in 2020, a blow that would be difficult for him to overcome and win another four years in the Oval Office. However, it’s unclear how big of a factor the war will have by the time voters head to polling places to make final choices and if it will overpower more typical concerns like the economy.

Several polls have found that despite the widespread attention the protests have received, younger Americans’ priorities are more likely to follow a typical voter, ranking the economy, inflation and being able to find a job higher than the war in Gaza.

“Coverage of the protests have created the perception that this is the No. 1 issue for young people,” said David McLennan, a professor of political science and director of the Meredith Poll. “They're worried about housing prices, and can they afford rent? Can they have a job? That's where most Americans are, they care about the Israel-Palestinian situation, but they care more about their own circumstances.”

Domestic issues tend to dominate voter concerns as they head to cast a ballot in November. The economy, inflation and the situation at the border are the most common responses to the biggest problems facing the country despite a first four years that has been filled with foreign policy issues Biden has had to navigate.

A chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war have been central issues that have dominated the administration’s time and resources, including getting Congress to continue to pass military aid despite some resistance from GOP lawmakers. Countering China is also increasingly important for lawmakers in Washington and the administration.

The war in Israel and continued U.S. support for it has drawn significant attention in headlines, but how much it will ultimately mean for whether Biden or former President Donald Trump win another term is less clear.

“Even though Biden is catching a lot of grief because of Israel and Gaza, I don't think this is going to be make-or-break for his reelection campaign,” McLennan said.

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